Publications

Preprints

A. Gettemy, S. Minkoff, J. Zweck, and E.T. Spiller. Classification of Leading Edge Erosion Severity via Machine Learning Surrogate Models. Wind Energy Science, 2025+

J. Seidman, E.T. Spiller. VPPE: Application of Scaled Vecchia Approximations to Parallel Partial Emulation. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2508.19144, 2025+

E.T. Spiller, L.A. Mcguire, P. Patel, A. Patra, and E.B. Pitman. Quantifying fire effects on debris flow runout using a morphodynamic model and stochastic surrogates. https://essopenarchive.org/users/714422/articles/1258316, 2025+

Published

L. Sun, A. Apte, L. Slivinski, E.T. Spiller. Exploring the Potential of Strongly Coupled Lagrangian Data Assimilation in an Ocean-Atmosphere System. Monthly Weather Review 153(3) 425-445. doi=10.1175/MWR-D-23-0284.1, 2025.

T. Dolski, E.T. Spiller, S.E. Minkoff. Gaussian process emulation for high-dimensional coupled systems. Technometrics 66(3) 1–15. doi=10.1080/00401706.2024.2322651, 2024.

P. Tierz, E.T. Spiller, B.A. Clarke, F. Dessalegn, Y. Bekele, E. Lewi, G. Yirgu, R.L. Wolpert, S.C. Loughlin, and E.S. Calder. Topographic controls on pyroclastic density current hazard at Aluto volcano (Ethiopia) as seen with a novel zero-censored Gaussian Process emulator. Journal of Geophysical Research, 129(5) e2023JB028645 doi=10.1029/2023JB028645, 2024.

E.T. Spiller, R.W. Wolpert, P. Tierz, and T.G. Asher. The zero problem: Gaussian process emulators for range constrained computer models*. SIAM/ASA J. Uncert. Quant, 11(2) 540–566. doi=10.1137/21M1467420, 2023.

*R and Matlab code for zGP available here https://github.com/SideofMan/zGP

J. Maclean, and E.T. Spiller. A surrogate-based approach to nonlinear, non-Gaussian joint state-parameter data assimilation. Foundations of Data Science, 3(3) 589–614. doi=10.3934/fods.2021019, 2021.

P.K. Aikaterini, A.A. Taflanidis, M. Plumlee, T.G. Asher, E.T. Spiller, R.A. Luettich, B. Blanton, T.L. Kijewski-Correa, A. Kennedy, L. Shmied. Improvements in storm surge surrogate modeling for synthetic storm parameterization, node condition classification and implementation to small size databases. Nat Hazards (109), 1349–1386, doi=10.1007/s11069-021-04881-9, 2021.

E.T. Spiller, R.L. Wolpert, S.E. Ogburn, E.S. Calder, J.O. Berger, A.K. Patra, and E.B. Pitman. Volcanic hazard assessment during an eruption hiatus, or post-eruption unrest context: Modeling continued dome collapse hazards for Soufriere Hills Volcano. Frontiers in Earth Science Geohazards and Georisks, (8) 396 doi=10.3389/feart.2020.535567, 2020.

Q. Yang, E.B. Pitman , E.T. Spiller, M.I. Bursik, and A. Bevilacqua. Novel statistical emulator construction for volcanic ash transport model Ash3d with physically-motivated measures, Proceedings of the Royal Academy A, (476) 20200161. doi=10.1098/rspa.2020.0161, 2020.

R. Rutarindwa, E.T. Spiller, A. Bevilacqua, M.I. Bursik, and A.K. Patra). Dynamic probabilistic hazard mapping in the Long Valley Volcanic Region CA: integrating vent opening maps and statistical surrogates of physical models of pyroclastic density currents. Journal of Geophysical Research: solid earth, (124) doi=10.1029/2019JB017352, 2019.

H. Lee, E.T. Spiller, and S.E. Minkoff. Dimension reduction and global sensitivity metrics using active subspaces for coupled flow and deformation modeling. SEG Technical Program Expanded Abstracts : 3240-3244, 2019.

R.L. Wolpert, E.T. Spiller, E.S. Calder. Dynamic Statistical Models for Pyroclastic Density Current Generation at Soufriere Hills Volcano. Frontiers in Earth Science (6)
doi=10.3389/feart.2018.00055, 2018.

S.E. Ogburn, J.O. Berger, E.S. Calder, D. Lopes, A. Patra, E.B. Pitman, R. Rutarindwa,
E.T. Spiller, and R.L. Wolpert. Pooling strength amongst limited datasets using hierarchical Bayesian analysis, with application to pyroclastic density current mobility metrics. Statistics in Volcanology (2), 1–26, 2016.

M.J. Bayarri, J.O. Berger, E.S. Calder, E.T. Spiller, A.K. Patra, E.B. Pitman, and
R.L. Wolpert. A Method for Quantifying Volcanic Hazards. Int. J. for Uncert. Quant. 5(4), 297–325, 2015.

L. Slivinski, E.T. Spiller, A. Apte, and B. Sandstede. A Hybrid Particle-Ensemble Kalman
Filter for Lagrangian Data Assimilation. Monthly Weather Review 143(1), 195–211,
2015.

N. Santitissadeekorn, E.T. Spiller, C.K.R.T. Jones, R. Rutarindwa, L. Liu, and K. Ide.
Observing System Simulation Experiments of Cross-Layer Lagrangian Data Assimilation, Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans, (66), 77–93, 2014.

E.T. Spiller, M.J. Bayarri, J.O. Berger, E.S. Calder, A.K. Patra, E.B. Pitman, and
R.L. Wolpert. Automating Emulator Construction for Geophysical Hazard Maps.
SIAM/ASA J. Uncert. Quant (2), 126–152, 2014.

E.T. Spiller, A. Apte and C.K.R.T. Jones. Assimilating en Route Lagrangian Observations. Tellus A, (65), 20319, 2013.

E.T. Spiller, and G. Biondini. Importance Sampling for Dispersion-Managed Solitons.
SIAM J. Appl. Dyn. Syst. 9, 432–461, 2010.

M.J. Bayarri, J.O. Berger, E.S. Calder, K. Dalbey, S. Lunagomez, A.K. Patra, E.B. Pitman,
E.T. Spiller and R.L. Wolpert. Using Statistical and Computer Models to Quantify Volcanic Hazards. Technometrics 51 (4), 402–413, 2009.

E.T. Spiller, and G. Biondini. Phase Noise of Dispersion-managed Solitons. Phys. Rev. A 80 011805:1–4, 2009.

E.T. Spiller, A. Budhiraja, K. Ide, and C.K.R.T. Jones. Modified Particle Filter Methods for Assimilating Lagrangian Data into a Point-vortex Model. Physica D 237 (10), 1498–1506, 2008.

E.T. Spiller, and W.L. Kath. A Method for Determining the Most-Probable Errors in
Nonlinear Lightwave Systems. SIAM J. on Appl. Dyn. Syst. 7, 686–694, 2008.

J. Li, E.T. Spiller, and G. Biondini. Noise-Induced Perturbations of Dispersion-Managed
Solitons. Phys. Rev. A 75, 053818:1–13, 2007.

E.T. Spiller, G.M. Donovan, and W.L. Kath. Direct Determination of Range Extension Due to Phase Conjugation in a Soliton-Based DPSK Transmission System. Proceedings on the Conference of Lasers and Electro-optics, 1786–1788, 2005.

G.M. Donovan, E.T. Spiller and W.L. Kath. Non-Gaussian Optical Field Statistics in a
Long-Haul Soliton-Based DPSK transmission system. Proceedings on the Conference of Lasers and Electro-optics, 1497–1499, 2005.

E.T. Spiller, W.L. Kath, R.O. Moore, and C.J. McKinstrie. Predicting the Failure Modes in
DPSK Transmission Systems. Proceedings on the Conference of Lasers: Postconference Edition, 2004.